[{"@context":"http:\/\/schema.org\/","@type":"BlogPosting","@id":"https:\/\/wiki.edu.vn\/all2jp\/wiki11\/archives\/11651#BlogPosting","mainEntityOfPage":"https:\/\/wiki.edu.vn\/all2jp\/wiki11\/archives\/11651","headline":"\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u30a6\u30a3\u30ad\u30da\u30c7\u30a3\u30a2","name":"\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u30a6\u30a3\u30ad\u30da\u30c7\u30a3\u30a2","description":"before-content-x4 \u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f \u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u3067\u306f\u3001\u540d\u76ee\u4e0a\u306e\u5229\u76ca\u3001\u771f\u306e\u5229\u76ca\u3001\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u306e\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306f\u3001\u540d\u76ee\u91d1\u5229\u306f\u5b9f\u8cea\u7684\u5229\u5b50\u3068\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306e\u5408\u8a08\u306b\u76f8\u5f53\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u79c1 t\u2248 r t+ pi t+1e\u3001 {displaystyle i_ {t} \u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066 \u79c1 t {displaystyle i_ {t}} \u73fe\u5728\u306e\u671f\u9593\u306e\u540d\u76ee\u91d1\u5229 t","datePublished":"2019-11-08","dateModified":"2019-11-08","author":{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/wiki.edu.vn\/all2jp\/wiki11\/archives\/author\/lordneo#Person","name":"lordneo","url":"https:\/\/wiki.edu.vn\/all2jp\/wiki11\/archives\/author\/lordneo","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/44a4cee54c4c053e967fe3e7d054edd4?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/44a4cee54c4c053e967fe3e7d054edd4?s=96&d=mm&r=g","height":96,"width":96}},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Enzyklop\u00e4die","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/wiki.edu.vn\/wiki4\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/download.jpg","url":"https:\/\/wiki.edu.vn\/wiki4\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/download.jpg","width":600,"height":60}},"image":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/wikimedia.org\/api\/rest_v1\/media\/math\/render\/svg\/2db657d939314809db8c05981b1aaaaaab6d7616","url":"https:\/\/wikimedia.org\/api\/rest_v1\/media\/math\/render\/svg\/2db657d939314809db8c05981b1aaaaaab6d7616","height":"","width":""},"url":"https:\/\/wiki.edu.vn\/all2jp\/wiki11\/archives\/11651","wordCount":4634,"articleBody":"     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});before-content-x4 \u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f \u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u3067\u306f\u3001\u540d\u76ee\u4e0a\u306e\u5229\u76ca\u3001\u771f\u306e\u5229\u76ca\u3001\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u306e\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306f\u3001\u540d\u76ee\u91d1\u5229\u306f\u5b9f\u8cea\u7684\u5229\u5b50\u3068\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306e\u5408\u8a08\u306b\u76f8\u5f53\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u79c1 t\u2248 r t+ pi t+1e\u3001 {displaystyle i_ {t} \u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066 \u79c1 t {displaystyle i_ {t}} \u73fe\u5728\u306e\u671f\u9593\u306e\u540d\u76ee\u91d1\u5229 t {displaystylet} \u3001 r t {displaystyle r_ {t}} \u5b9f\u8cea\u91d1\u5229\u3068 pi t + \u521d\u3081 \u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059 {displaystyle pi _ {t+1}^{e}} \u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u671f\u9593 t + \u521d\u3081 {displaystylet+1}  \u671f\u5f85\u3055\u308c\u308b \u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002 \u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u6b21\u306e\u8003\u3048\u3092\u898b\u308b\u3068\u5f79\u7acb\u3061\u307e\u3059\u3002 Table of Contents\u5b8c\u74a7\u306a\u5148\u898b\u306e\u660e\u306e\u3042\u308b\u4f8b [ \u7de8\u96c6 | \u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3092\u7de8\u96c6\u3057\u307e\u3059 ] \u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u672a\u6765\u306f\u78ba\u4fe1\u304c\u6301\u3066\u307e\u305b\u3093 [ \u7de8\u96c6 | \u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3092\u7de8\u96c6\u3057\u307e\u3059 ] \u5143\u30dd\u30b9\u30c8\u306e\u672c\u5f53\u306e\u95a2\u5fc3 [ \u7de8\u96c6 | \u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3092\u7de8\u96c6\u3057\u307e\u3059 ] \u5143\u306e\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306e\u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u5b9a\u5f0f\u5316\uff08\u540d\u76eearbitrage\u5f15\u6570\uff09 [ \u7de8\u96c6 | \u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3092\u7de8\u96c6\u3057\u307e\u3059 ] \u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306e\u4ee3\u66ff\u5b9a\u5f0f\u5316\uff08\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u88c1\u5b9a\u6cd5\uff09 [ \u7de8\u96c6 | \u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3092\u7de8\u96c6\u3057\u307e\u3059 ] \u5b8c\u74a7\u306a\u5148\u898b\u306e\u660e\u306e\u3042\u308b\u4f8b [ \u7de8\u96c6 | \u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3092\u7de8\u96c6\u3057\u307e\u3059 ] \u7d4c\u6e08\u53c2\u52a0\u8005\u306b\u306f100\u30e6\u30fc\u30ed\u304c\u3042\u308a\u30011\u5e74\u9593\u6295\u8cc7\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u306b\u306f\u9a5a\u304d\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002 H.\u7d4c\u6e08\u898f\u6a21\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u767a\u5c55\u306f\u3001\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u4ff3\u512a\u306b\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\uff08\u5b8c\u74a7\u306a\u5148\u898b\uff09\u3002\u30a2\u30fc\u30f4\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u306b\u306f\u3001100\u30e6\u30fc\u30ed\u3092\u6295\u8cc7\u3059\u308b\u3055\u307e\u3056\u307e\u306a\u65b9\u6cd5\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002 1\u3064\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306f\u3001\u91d1\u5229\u306b\u304a\u91d1\u3092\u7a3c\u3050\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059 \u79c1 t {displaystyle i_ {t}}        (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});after-content-x4\u8cc3\u501f\u3059\u308b\u3002\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u91d1\u5229\u306f4\uff05\u3067\u3059\uff08 \u79c1 t = 0 \u3001 04 {displaystyle i_ {t} = 0 {\u3001} 04} \uff09\u3001\u5f7c\u306f1\u5e74\u3067100\u30e6\u30fc\u30ed\u3092\u53d6\u308a\u623b\u3057\u3001\u3055\u3089\u306b 100 \u00d7 0 \u3001 04 = 4 {displaystyle 100Times 0 {\u3001} 04 = 4} \u30e6\u30fc\u30ed\u306e\u95a2\u5fc3\u3001\u5f7c\u304c\u5168\u4f53\u7684\u306b 100 \u00d7 \uff08 \u521d\u3081 + \u79c1 t \uff09\uff09 = 104 {displaystyle 100Times\uff081+i_ {t}\uff09= 104} \u30e6\u30fc\u30ed\u306f\u6301\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002        (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});after-content-x4\u30a2\u30fc\u30f4\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u3082\u30461\u3064\u306e\u9078\u629e\u80a2\u306f\u3001\u5f7c\u304c100\u30e6\u30fc\u30ed\u3092\u6709\u671b\u306a\u30d7\u30ed\u30b8\u30a7\u30af\u30c8\u3001\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u5c0f\u9ea6\u306e\u683d\u57f9\u306b\u6295\u8cc7\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5c0f\u9ea6\u306e\u5358\u4f4d\u306f\u4eca\u65e51\u30e6\u30fc\u30ed\u306e\u8cbb\u7528\u304c\u304b\u304b\u308a\u3001\u7551\u3092\u64ad\u7a2e\u3057\u3066\u7dad\u6301\u3059\u308b\u30683\uff05\u306e\u53ce\u91cf\u304c\u5897\u52a0\u3057\u30011\u5e74\u3067103\u30e6\u30cb\u30c3\u30c8\u304c\u53ce\u7a6b\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3068\u60f3\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 2\u3064\u306e\u9078\u629e\u80a2\u306e\u3069\u308c\u304c\u512a\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304b\uff1f\u30e6\u30cb\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u304c\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u767a\u5c55\u3059\u308b\u304b\u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5b8c\u74a7\u306a\u5148\u898b\u306e\u305f\u3081\u3001\u30e6\u30cb\u30c3\u30c8\u306f1\u5e74\u9593\u30671\u30e6\u30fc\u30ed\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u30011.02\u30e6\u30fc\u30ed\u306e\u8cbb\u7528\u304c\u304b\u304b\u308a\u306a\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3001\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u306f2\uff05\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u5909\u5316\u7387\uff08\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\uff09\u304b\u3089\u79fb\u52d5\u3057\u307e\u3059\uff08\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\uff09 pi t + \u521d\u3081 = 0 \u3001 02 {displaystyle pi _ {t+1} = 0 {\u3001} 02} \uff09out\u3002\u3053\u308c\u304b\u3089\u3001\u30a2\u30fc\u30f4\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u306f1\u5e74\u3067103\u30e6\u30cb\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u5c0f\u9ea6\u306e103\u30e6\u30cb\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u5c0f\u9ea6\u304c\u30e6\u30cb\u30c3\u30c8\u3042\u305f\u308a1.02\u30e6\u30fc\u30ed\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308aH.\u7d04105\u30e6\u30fc\u30ed\uff08\u3061\u3087\u3046\u3069105.06\u30e6\u30fc\u30ed\uff09\u3067\u8ca9\u58f2\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3001\u5c0f\u9ea6\u306e\u683d\u57f9\u306b\u304a\u91d1\u3092\u6295\u8cc7\u3057\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u306f\u6709\u5229\u3067\u3059\u3002 \u5408\u7406\u7684\u306a\u7d4c\u6e08\u53c2\u52a0\u8005\u306f\u3053\u306e\u3064\u306a\u304c\u308a\u3092\u8a8d\u8b58\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u4e0e\u3048\u3089\u308c\u305f\u72b6\u6cc1\u4e0b\u3067\u306f\u30014\uff05\u306e\u5229\u5b50\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306b\u304a\u91d1\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u5c0f\u9ea6\u306e\u683d\u57f9\u306b\u6295\u8cc7\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u304a\u91d1\u3092\u5fc5\u8981\u3068\u3059\u308b\u4ff3\u512a\u306f\u3001\u5f7c\u3089\u306b\u304a\u91d1\u3092\u8cb8\u3059\u4eba\u3092\u898b\u3064\u3051\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u3088\u308a\u9ad8\u3044\u91d1\u5229\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u306f\u3001\u4e21\u65b9\u306e\u4ee3\u66ff\u304c1\u5e74\u5f8c\u306b\u540c\u3058\u5229\u56de\u308a\u306b\u3064\u306a\u304c\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306b\u306e\u307f\u8abf\u6574\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002 2\u3064\u306e\u4ee3\u66ff\u6848\u306e1\u3064\u304c\u4ed6\u306e\u4ee3\u66ff\u54c1\u3088\u308a\u3082\u9ad8\u3044\u5229\u56de\u308a\u3092\u7d04\u675f\u3059\u308b\u9650\u308a\u3001\u8ab0\u3082\u4ed6\u306e\u4ee3\u66ff\u624b\u6bb5\u3092\u9078\u629e\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u3044\u3068\u308f\u306a\u3044\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u4eca\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u305f\u6295\u8cc7\u306e\u91d1\u5229\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u306a\u3069\u3001\u9069\u5fdc\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u306b\u3064\u306a\u304c\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4ed6\u306e\u8abf\u6574\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u3082\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5c0f\u9ea6\u306e\u683d\u57f9\u304b\u3089\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u304c\u6295\u8cc7\u306e\u53ce\u7a6b\u91cf\u3088\u308a\u3082\u9ad8\u3044\u9650\u308a\u3001\u307e\u3059\u307e\u3059\u591a\u304f\u306e\u30d7\u30ec\u30fc\u30e4\u30fc\u304c\u5c0f\u9ea6\u306e\u683d\u57f9\u306b\u6295\u8cc7\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u671f\u9593\u306b\u5c0f\u9ea6\u306e\u30aa\u30d5\u30a1\u30fc\u304c\u5897\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u671f\u9593\u306e\u5c0f\u9ea6\u4fa1\u683c\u306f2\uff05\u4e0a\u6607\u3057\u306a\u304f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3088\u308a\u5927\u304d\u306a\u30aa\u30d5\u30a1\u30fc\u304c\u3088\u308a\u4f4e\u3044\u305f\u3081\u3067\u3059\u3002\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u304c\u308f\u305a\u304b1\uff05\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u306e\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u8aac\u660e\u3055\u308c\u308b\u5e73\u8861\u306f\u518d\u3073\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u3082\u305f\u3089\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e21\u65b9\u306e\u4ee3\u66ff\u6848\u306f4\uff05\u306e\u5229\u5b50\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e4\uff05\u306f\u3001\u5c0f\u9ea6\u683d\u57f9\u306e\u53ce\u76ca\uff08Realzin\uff09\u306e3\uff05\u306e\u5897\u52a0\uff08Realzin\uff09\u306b1\uff05\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u4e0a\u6607\uff08\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\uff09\u3067\u69cb\u6210\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002        (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});after-content-x4\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u672a\u6765\u306f\u78ba\u4fe1\u304c\u6301\u3066\u307e\u305b\u3093 [ \u7de8\u96c6 | \u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3092\u7de8\u96c6\u3057\u307e\u3059 ] \u3082\u3061\u308d\u3093\u3001\u5c0f\u9ea6\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u304c1\u5e74\u3067\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u9ad8\u3044\u304b\u3092\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u77e5\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u671f\u9593 t \u5c0f\u9ea6\u4fa1\u683c\u304c1\u5e74\u3067\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u9ad8\u304f\u306a\u308b\u304b\u3001\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3053\u308c\u304c\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u4f55\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u671f\u5f85\u3002\u3053\u306e\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306f\u3001\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e2\u3064\u306e\u9078\u629e\u80a2\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u4f7f\u7528\u3067\u304d\u3001\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306f\u3001\u540d\u76ee\u5229\u606f\u3001\u5b9f\u8cea\u91d1\u5229\u3001\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306e\u9593\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u7684\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u306e\u7279\u6027\u8a55\u4fa1\u3068\u3057\u3066\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u3082\u305f\u3089\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u5143\u30dd\u30b9\u30c8\u306e\u672c\u5f53\u306e\u95a2\u5fc3 [ \u7de8\u96c6 | \u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3092\u7de8\u96c6\u3057\u307e\u3059 ] \u672c\u5f53\u306e\u8208\u5473 r t {displaystyle r_ {t}} \u516c\u79f0\u91d1\u5229\u3068\u306f\u5bfe\u7167\u7684\u306b\u3001\u7d4c\u6e08\u53c2\u52a0\u8005\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u671f\u5f85\u306f\u89b3\u5bdf\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u3042\u306a\u305f\u304c\u307e\u3060\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u671f\u9593\u306b\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u91d1\u5229\u306e\u91d1\u984d\u3092\u671b\u3080\u306a\u3089 t \u5224\u65ad\u3057\u3066\u3001\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u5143\u30dd\u30b9\u30c8\u306e\u672c\u5f53\u306e\u95a2\u5fc3\u3092\u307b\u307c\u898b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u3092\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306b\u7f6e\u304d\u63db\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3001\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u304b\u3089\u751f\u3058\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306fex post\u3001i\u3002 H.\u305d\u306e\u671f\u9593\u304b\u3089\u5f8c\u3067 T+1 \u3001\u77e5\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff1a r t\u2248 \u79c1 t –  pi t+1{displaystyle r_ {t} \u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u306a\u671f\u5f85\u8aa4\u5dee\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3068\u60f3\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306e\u8abf\u67fb\u5024\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u30bb\u30ad\u30e5\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u3068\u50b5\u5238\u3068\u50b5\u5238\u306e\u9593\u306e\u95a2\u5fc3\u306e\u9055\u3044\u3092\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u4fdd\u8b77\u306a\u3057\u306b\u6bd4\u8f03\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u5143\u306e\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306e\u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u5b9a\u5f0f\u5316\uff08\u540d\u76eearbitrage\u5f15\u6570\uff09 [ \u7de8\u96c6 | \u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3092\u7de8\u96c6\u3057\u307e\u3059 ] \u5143\u306e\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306e\u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u3001\u516c\u79f0\u88c1\u5b9a\u6cd5\u304b\u3089\u5c0e\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002 [\u521d\u3081] \u6295\u8cc7\u306e\u540d\u76ee\u6240\u5f97 \uff08 \u521d\u3081 + \u79c1 t \uff09\uff09 {displaystyle\uff081+i_ {t}\uff09} \u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u306e\u4e88\u60f3\u516c\u79f0\u53ce\u5165\u306f\u540c\u7b49\u3067\u3059\u3002 \uff08 \u521d\u3081 + \u79c1 t\uff09\uff09 = \uff08 \u521d\u3081 + r t\uff09\uff09 Pt+1ePt{displaystyle\uff081+i_ {t}\uff09=\uff081+r_ {t}\uff09{frac {p_ {t+1}^{e}} {p_ {t}}}}}} p t {displaystyle p_ {t}} \u73fe\u5728\u306e\u671f\u9593\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u672c\u5f53\u306e\u5584\uff08\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u4f8b\u306e\u5c0f\u9ea6\uff09\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u307e\u3059 t {displaystylet} \u3068 p t + \u521d\u3081 {displaystyle p_ {t+1}} \u6b21\u306e\u671f\u9593\u306e\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3059\u308b\u4fa1\u683c t + \u521d\u3081 {displaystylet+1} \u3002\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u30b0\u30ec\u30fc\u30c9 \u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059 {displaystyle e} \u305d\u308c\u304c\u671f\u5f85\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u7279\u5fb4\u3065\u3051\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u7d14\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306e\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3068\u3068\u3082\u306b\u3001 pi t+1= Pt+1Pt –  \u521d\u3081 {displaystyle pi _ {t+1} = {frac {p_ {t+1}} {p_ {t}}}}  –  1} \u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306b\u5f93\u3044\u307e\u3059 \uff08 \u521d\u3081 + \u79c1 t\uff09\uff09 = \uff08 \u521d\u3081 + r t\uff09\uff09 \uff08 \u521d\u3081 + pi t+1e\uff09\uff09 {displaystyle\uff081+i_ {t}\uff09=\uff081+r_ {t}\uff09\uff081+pi _ {t+1}^{e}\uff09} \u8fd1\u4f3c\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u3001\u53f3\u5074\u3092\u9cf4\u3089\u3057\u3066\u7d50\u679c\u3068\u3057\u3066\u751f\u3058\u307e\u3059 \uff08 \u521d\u3081 + \u79c1 t\uff09\uff09 = \u521d\u3081 + r t+ pi t+1e+ r tpi t+1e{displaystyle\uff081+i_ {t}\uff09= 1+r_ {t}+pi _ {t+1}^{e}+r_ {t} pi _ {t+1}^{e}} \u3068\u4e57\u7b97 r t pi t + \u521d\u3081 \u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059 {displaystyle r_ {t} pi _ {t+1}^{e}} \u7121\u8996\u3055\u308c\u305f\uff1a \u79c1 t\u2248 r t+ pi t+1e{displaystyle i_ {t} amptx r_ {t}+pi _ {t+1}^{e}} \u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u8cea\u91d1\u5229\u3068\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306e\u4e21\u65b9\u304c\u5c0f\u6570\u70b9\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u9aa8\u6298\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6e2c\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002 H.\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306f2\uff05\u306b\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059 pi t + \u521d\u3081 \u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059 = 0 \u3001 02 {displaystyle pi _ {t+1}^{e} = 0 {\u3001} 02} \u3001\u88fd\u54c1\u3067\u3059 r t pi t + \u521d\u3081 \u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059 {displaystyle r_ {t} pi _ {t+1}^{e}} \u73fe\u5b9f\u7684\u306a\u30de\u30b0\u30cb\u30c1\u30e5\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u771f\u306e\u95a2\u5fc3\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u7121\u8996\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u8fd1\u4f3c\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u3001\u4e3b\u306b\u5b9f\u4f8b\u304a\u3088\u3073\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u306b\u4f7f\u7528\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u3001\u5e38\u306b\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u306b\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306e\u4ee3\u66ff\u5b9a\u5f0f\u5316\uff08\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u88c1\u5b9a\u6cd5\uff09 [ \u7de8\u96c6 | \u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3092\u7de8\u96c6\u3057\u307e\u3059 ] \u7d4c\u6e08\u30a8\u30fc\u30b8\u30a7\u30f3\u30c8\u304c\u540d\u76ee\u306b\u95a2\u5fc3\u304c\u306a\u304f\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u306b\u95a2\u5fc3\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3001\u4f7f\u7528\u3055\u308c\u308b\u88c1\u5b9a\u6cd5\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u306f\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u7d14\u5229\u5b50\u3092\u4f34\u3046\u540d\u76ee\u6295\u8cc7\u306e\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u5b9f\u8cea\u5229\u56de\u308a \u79c1 t {displaystyle i_ {t}} \u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001\u672c\u5f53\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u306e\u672c\u5f53\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u3092\u540c\u4e00\u8996\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\uff1a \u3068 t[ (1+it)PtPt+1] = \uff08 \u521d\u3081 + r t\uff09\uff09 {displaystyle e_ {t} left [\uff081+i_ {t}\uff09{frac {p_ {t}} {p_ {t+1}}} right] =\uff081+r_ {t}\uff09} \u3068 t {displaystyle e_ {t}} \u6761\u4ef6\u4ed8\u304d\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u7d14\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306e\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3068\u3068\u3082\u306b\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u5f62\u5f0f\u306e\u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u7d9a\u304d\u307e\u3059 \u3068 t[ 1+it1+\u03c0t+1] = \uff08 \u521d\u3081 + r t\uff09\uff09 {displaystyle e_ {t} left [{frac {1+i_ {t}} {1+pi _ {t+1}}}\u53f3] =\uff081+r_ {t}\uff09} \u3053\u306e\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306f\u3001\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u4e2d\u7acb\u6027\u306e\u4e0b\u3067\u306e\u5229\u76ca\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306e\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u5e73\u8861\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3001\u307e\u305f\u306f\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u3068\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u7684\u5272\u5f15\u4fc2\u6570\u306e\u5171\u5206\u6563\u304c\u30bc\u30ed\u3067\u3042\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306b\u751f\u3058\u307e\u3059\u3002 [2] \u5143\u306e\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306e\u9055\u3044\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u5b9f\u8cea\u5229\u56de\u308a\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u304c\u95a2\u9023\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u81ea\u4f53\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u533a\u5225\u306f\u3001\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u306b\u95a2\u4fc2\u3059\u308b\u30b8\u30a7\u30f3\u30bb\u30f3\u306e\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306b\u751f\u3058\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u3053\u306e\u533a\u5225\u306f\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u304c\u78ba\u5b9f\u306b\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306b\u306e\u307f\u95a2\u9023\u3057\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002 H. \u3068 t[ 11+\u03c0t+1] = 11+Et\u03c0t+1{displaystyle e_ {t}\u5de6[{frac {1} {1+pi _ {t+1}}}\u53f3] = {frac {1} {1+e_ {t} pi _ {t+1}}}}}} \u307e\u305f\u306f\u300cCertaanty\u540c\u7b49\u6027\u300d\u3092\u4fdd\u6301\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f8c\u8005\u306f\u3001\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u304c\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u30a4\u30e1\u30fc\u30b8\u7248\u306e\u5c0e\u51fa\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u7dda\u5f62\u5316\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u30b8\u30a7\u30f3\u30bb\u30f3\u306e\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u306f\u6a5f\u80fd\u3057\u306a\u3044\u305f\u3081\u3001\u5143\u306e\u540d\u76ee\u4e0a\u306e\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306e\u8fd1\u4f3c\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u3068\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306e\u8fd1\u4f3c\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u540c\u4e00\u3067\u3059\u3002 \u30a2\u30fc\u30f4\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u30fb\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3068\u3001\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u306e\u4ea4\u901a\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3082\u540d\u524d\u304c\u4ed8\u3051\u3089\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u53d6\u5f15\u91cf\u3001\u4fa1\u683c\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u3001\u30de\u30cd\u30fc\u30b5\u30d7\u30e9\u30a4\u3001\u304a\u3088\u3073\u304a\u91d1\u306e\u6d41\u901a\u901f\u5ea6\u3068\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u6570\u91cf\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3092\u53c2\u7167\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002 \u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u306f\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u306e\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u4eee\u5b9a\u306e\u4e0b\u3067\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306e\u5909\u5316\u306f\u540d\u76ee\u91d1\u5229\u306b\u79fb\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3068\u8ff0\u3079\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u30a2\u30fc\u30f4\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u30fb\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u306f\u3001\u4e3b\u306b\u6b21\u306e\u4f5c\u696d\u3067\u91d1\u5229\u3092\u6271\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u30a2\u30fc\u30f4\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u30fb\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\uff1a \u8208\u5473\u306e\u3042\u308b\u7406\u8ad6 \u3002\u30de\u30af\u30df\u30e9\u30f3\u3001\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e8\u30fc\u30af1930\u3002 \u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u4f8b\u306f\u3001Rudolf Richter\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6b21\u306e\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u91d1\u5229\u306e\u7406\u8ad6\u306e\u63d0\u793a\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u30eb\u30c9\u30eb\u30d5\u30ea\u30d2\u30bf\u30fc\uff1a \u304a\u91d1\u306e\u7406\u8ad6\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8ad6\u3068\u5236\u5ea6\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u304f\u8b1b\u7fa9 \u3002\u7b2c2\u7248\u200b\u200b\u3001\u30b9\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30ac\u30fc\u3001\u30d9\u30eb\u30ea\u30f31990\u3001ISBN 978-3-540-51750-4\u3002 \u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u306e\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306f\u3001\u30de\u30af\u30ed\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u3001\u304a\u91d1\u306e\u7406\u8ad6\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u3067\u8aac\u660e\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u2191  \u30b5\u30a4\u30e2\u30f3\u30fb\u30d9\u30cb\u30f3\u30ac\u3001\u30a2\u30ea\u30b9\u30fb\u30d7\u30ed\u30c8\u30d1\u30d1\u30c0\u30ad\u30b9\uff1a \u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u306e\u4e0b\u3067\u306e\u5b9f\u8cea\u304a\u3088\u3073\u540d\u76ee\u91d1\u5229\uff1a\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u5b9a\u7406\u3068\u7528\u8a9e\u69cb\u9020 \u3002\u306e\uff1a Journal of Political Economy \u3002 \u30d0\u30f3\u30c9  91 \u3001 \u3044\u3044\u3048\u3002  5 \u30011\u30021983\u5e7410\u6708\u3001ISSN 0022-3808 \u3001 S.  856\u2013867 \u3001doi\uff1a 10.1086\/261185 \uff08 uchicago.edu [2018\u5e744\u670817\u65e5\u306b\u30a2\u30af\u30bb\u30b9]\uff09\u3002   \u2191  \u30ed\u30b4\u30d5\u3001\u30b1\u30cd\u30b9S.\u3001\u30e2\u30fc\u30ea\u30b9\u3001\u30aa\u30d6\u30bb\u30d5\u30a7\u30eb\u30c9\uff1a \u56fd\u969b\u30de\u30af\u30ed\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u306e\u57fa\u790e \u3002 MIT Press\u3001\u30b1\u30f3\u30d6\u30ea\u30c3\u30b8\u3001\u30de\u30b5\u30c1\u30e5\u30fc\u30bb\u30c3\u30c4\u5dde\u3002 1996\u3001ISBN 0-262-15047-6\u3001 S.  \u7b2c8.7.2\u7ae0 \u3002        (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});after-content-x4"},{"@context":"http:\/\/schema.org\/","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https:\/\/wiki.edu.vn\/all2jp\/wiki11\/#breadcrumbitem","name":"Enzyklop\u00e4die"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https:\/\/wiki.edu.vn\/all2jp\/wiki11\/archives\/11651#breadcrumbitem","name":"\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u30a6\u30a3\u30ad\u30da\u30c7\u30a3\u30a2"}}]}]