2020 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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Predictions for select races in the 2020 U.S. House elections

2020 United States House of Representatives election ratings

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 3, 2020, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2020 presidential election and the 2020 Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

Election ratings[edit]

Latest published ratings for competitive seats[edit]

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not “safe” or “solid”) by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

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  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
  • Lean: clear advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe: outcome is nearly certain

Generic ballot polls[edit]

The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2020 House of Representatives elections.

Polling aggregates
Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Democratic Republican Lead
FiveThirtyEight Nov 3, 2020 Until Nov 2, 2020 49.9% 42.6% +7.3%
RealClearPolitics Nov 3, 2020 Oct 25, 2020 – Nov 2, 2020 49.3% 42.5% +6.8%
Average 49.6% 42.6% +7.1%

Party listings[edit]

The campaign committees for the two parties — the DCCC and NRCC — publish their own lists of targeted seats.

Democratic[edit]

These races were added to the DCCC’s “battlefield” list in January 2020.[12]

These races were added to the DCCC’s “battlefield” list in August 2019.[13]

These races were added to the DCCC’s “battlefield” list in January 2019.[14]

These races were added to the DCCC’s “frontline” list of defensive targets in February 2019.[15]

Republican[edit]

These races were announced as the NRCC’s offensive targets in February 2019.[16]

  1. ^ Represents the Deluxe model
  2. ^ The 2018 race was between two Republicans, due to the top-two system in California

References[edit]

  1. ^ Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (April 7, 2017). “Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index”. Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on December 23, 2017.
  2. ^ “House election results 2018”. Cnn.com. Retrieved January 9, 2019.
  3. ^ “2020 House Race Ratings”. Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  4. ^ “House Ratings”. Inside Elections. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
  5. ^ “2020 House race ratings”. Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on September 21, 2020. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  6. ^ “2020 House Race Ratings”. Daily Kos. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  7. ^ “Battle for the House 2020”. RealClearPolitics. June 9, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
  8. ^ “2020 House Election Model”. Øptimus Consulting. Decision Desk HQ. November 3, 2020. Retrieved July 31, 2022.
  9. ^ “2020 House Forecast”. FiveThirtyEight. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  10. ^ “2020 House Race Ratings”. Elections Daily. Retrieved November 1, 2021.
  11. ^ “House Election Results”. The New York Times. November 20, 2020. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
  12. ^ “MEMO: Democrats Set to Protect & Expand House Majority, as 2020 Kicks off” (PDF). January 16, 2020. Archived from the original on June 29, 2020. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
  13. ^ “MEMO: DCCC Expands Offensive Battlefield to 39 Districts”. August 15, 2019. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
  14. ^ “Democrats Go on Offense – DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos Announces Initial 2020 Offensive Battlefield”. January 28, 2019. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
  15. ^ “2019-2020 DCCC Frontline Members”. February 7, 2019. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
  16. ^ “NRCC Announces 55 Offensive Targets for the 2020 Cycle”. February 9, 2019. Retrieved January 21, 2020.


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