2008 United States presidential election in Hawaii

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Election in Hawaii

2008 United States presidential election in Hawaii
Hawaii Presidential Election Results 2008.svg

County Results

Obama

  60-70%

  70-80%

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The 2008 United States presidential election in Hawaii took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 4 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Hawaii, Barack Obama’s birth state, gave him 71.9% of the vote with a 45.3% margin of victory in 2008. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Hawaii has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. Obama’s margin of victory in this state is only surpassed by that of the District of Columbia and is the only actual state that gave either candidate more than 70% of the vote. Turnout here was much higher than previous elections.

This remains the second-best performance by any party in a presidential election in Hawaii after Lyndon Johnson’s landslide re-election in 1964.

Caucuses[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Predictions[edit]

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Listed below are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1] Likely D
Cook Political Report[2] Solid D
The Takeaway[3] Solid D
Electoral-vote.com[4] Solid D
Washington Post[5] Solid D
Politico[6] Solid D
RealClearPolitics[7] Solid D
FiveThirtyEight[5] Solid D
CQ Politics[8] Solid D
The New York Times[9] Solid D
CNN[10] Safe D
NPR[5] Solid D
MSNBC[5] Solid D
Fox News[11] Likely D
Associated Press[12] Likely D
Rasmussen Reports[13] Safe D

Polling[edit]

Just 3 pre-election polls were ever taken in the state, averaging Obama at 64% to McCain at 30%.[14]

Fundraising[edit]

Obama raised $3,098,395. McCain raised $424,368.[15]

Advertising and visits[edit]

Obama spent $113,838 while a conservative interest group spent $31.[16] Obama visited the state once.[17]

Analysis[edit]

One of the most reliably blue states in the nation, Hawaii has only voted for two Republican candidates since statehood, both in national 49-state Republican landslides–Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984. A large concentration of Asian Americans makes the state very favorable to the Democrats. Although moderate Republicans occasionally win at the state level—for instance, then-Governor Linda Lingle and Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona were both Republicans—Hawaii has long been reckoned as a Democratic stronghold.

It came as something of a surprise in 2004 when John Kerry only carried Hawaii by 8.7 points, the worst performance for a Democrat since Ronald Reagan carried the state in 1984. However, the state reverted to form in dramatic fashion in 2008, with Barack Obama (who was born in Hawaii) winning the state in a landslide over Republican John McCain. Obama outperformed Kerry by 36.3%, making Hawaii Obama’s biggest improvement from 2004. During the same election, Democrats picked up one seat in the Hawaii House of Representatives and two seats in the Hawaii Senate, giving them a super-majority in the Hawaii state legislature with 45 out of 51 seats in the Hawaii House and 23 out of 25 seats in the Hawaii Senate.

Results[edit]

By county[edit]

County Obama Votes McCain Votes Others Votes
Overseas 81.1% 670 16.6% 137 2.3% 19
Hawaii 75.9% 50,819 22.2% 14,866 1.8% 1,231
Maui 76.7% 39,727 21.5% 11,154 1.8% 908
Kalawao 77.4% 24 22.58% 7 0.0% 0
Kauai 74.9% 20,416 22.9% 6,245 2.1% 563
Honolulu 69.8% 214,239 28.7% 88,164 1.4% 4,410

By congressional district[edit]

Barack Obama swept both of Hawaii’s two congressional districts easily.

Electors[edit]

Technically the voters of Hawaii cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Hawaii is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[18] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 4 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[19]

  1. Joy Kobashigawa
  2. Marie Dolores
  3. Amefil Agbayani
  4. Frances K. Kagawa

References[edit]

  1. ^ “D.C.’s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries”. 2009-01-01. Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  2. ^ “Presidential”. 2015-05-05. Archived from the original on 2015-05-05. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  3. ^ “Vote 2008 – The Takeaway – Track the Electoral College vote predictions”. 2009-04-22. Archived from the original on 2009-04-22. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  4. ^ “Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily”. electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  5. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  6. ^ “POLITICO’s 2008 Swing State Map – POLITICO.com”. www.politico.com. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  7. ^ “RealClearPolitics – Electoral Map”. Archived from the original on 2008-06-05.
  8. ^ “CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008”. CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  9. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (2008-11-04). “The Electoral Map: Key States”. The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  10. ^ “October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker – CNN.com Blogs”. CNN. 2008-10-31. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ^ “Winning The Electoral College”. Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. ^ “roadto270”. hosted.ap.org. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  13. ^ “Election 2008: Electoral College Update – Rasmussen Reports™”. www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  14. ^ Election 2008 Polls – Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. ^ “Presidential Campaign Finance”. Archived from the original on 2009-03-24. Retrieved 2009-08-20.
  16. ^ “Map: Campaign Ad Spending – Election Center 2008 from CNN.com”. CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  17. ^ “Map: Campaign Candidate Visits – Election Center 2008 from CNN.com”. CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. ^ “Electoral College”. California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  19. ^ “Archived copy” (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 6, 2008. Retrieved November 8, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)



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