2024 United States Senate election in Montana

Posted on by
before-content-x4

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2024 United States Senate election in Montana
after-content-x4

The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Jon Tester is seeking re-election to a fourth term in office. He was last re-elected in 2018, with 50.3% of the vote. Tester is one of three Democratic senators up for re-election in states that Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, alongside Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Tester’s re-election is considered essential for Democrats’ chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[1]

In 2023, the Montana State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill’s sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said the bill would require the winner of the 2024 Senate to receive a majority of the vote. Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Democrats decried the bill as a “partisan power grab” and claimed it was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee.[2][3]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Jon Tester

U.S. Senators
Organizations

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Publicly expressed interest[edit]

Potential[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Hypothetical polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error 		Russell
Fagg 		Matt
Rosendale 		Tim
Sheehy 		Corey
Stapleton 		Ryan
Zinke 		Other/Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R) February 18–21, 2023 600 (LV)[c] ± 4.0% 2% 36% 2% 6% 26% 28%

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Polling[edit]

Hypothetical polling

 after-content-x4
Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error 		Jon
Tester (D) 		Greg
Gianforte (R) 		Undecided
Political Company (R) January 30 – February 1, 2023 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 45% 10%
Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error 		Jon
Tester (D) 		Matt
Rosendale (R) 		Other Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R) February 18–21, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 46% 5% 7%
Political Company (R) January 30 – February 1, 2023 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 40% – 15%
Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error 		Jon
Tester (D) 		Ryan
Zinke (R) 		Undecided
Political Company (R) January 30 – February 1, 2023 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%
  1. ^ a b Has not declared their candidacy
  2. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters

References[edit]

  1. ^ Everett, Burgess. “GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin’s Dems-only deal”. Politico. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
  2. ^ “Senate passes bill creating top-two primary in Tester’s 2024 U.S. Senate race”.
  3. ^ “Republicans seek to change Montana primary to thwart Tester”.
  4. ^ Concepcion, Summer (February 22, 2023). “Sen. Jon Tester to seek re-election in 2024”. NBC News. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
  5. ^ Everett, Burgess (April 7, 2023). “Montana beef: Bad blood intensifies between Tester and Daines”. Politico. Retrieved April 8, 2023. Manchin is backing Tester and has tried to stop senator-vs.-senator campaign appearances, even previously endorsing two moderate Republicans.
  6. ^ a b “End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Tester for Reelection”. March 30, 2023.
  7. ^ “AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats”. March 16, 2023.
  8. ^ Holt, Matt (February 2, 2023). “Montana machinations: How Republicans are preparing to take on Jon Tester”. National Journal. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
  9. ^ a b c Brown, Matthew (November 12, 2022). “Surging Montana GOP eyes big prize: US Senate seat in 2024”. The Intelligencer. Retrieved November 12, 2022.
  10. ^ Slacik, Sophia (November 23, 2022). “The 2024 Senate battle has begun and the electoral map does not favor Democrats”. Rosendale has communicated interest in a rematch with Tester
  11. ^ a b c “Senate GOP close to landing top recruit in Montana”. March 9, 2023.
  12. ^ “This Montana Republican wouldn’t support McCarthy, but a major group may support him for Senate”.
  13. ^ “2024 Senate Race Ratings”. Amy Walter. January 24, 2023. Retrieved January 24, 2023.
  14. ^ “Senate Ratings”. Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  15. ^ “2024 Senate”. Sabato’s Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites



after-content-x4