2024 United States Senate election in Montana
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Jon Tester is seeking re-election to a fourth term in office. He was last re-elected in 2018, with 50.3% of the vote. Tester is one of three Democratic senators up for re-election in states that Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, alongside Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Tester’s re-election is considered essential for Democrats’ chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[1]
In 2023, the Montana State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill’s sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said the bill would require the winner of the 2024 Senate to receive a majority of the vote. Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Democrats decried the bill as a “partisan power grab” and claimed it was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee.[2][3]
Democratic primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Declared[edit]
Endorsements[edit]
Jon Tester
- U.S. Senators
- Organizations
Republican primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Publicly expressed interest[edit]
Potential[edit]
Declined[edit]
Endorsements[edit]
Polling[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Russell Fagg |
Matt Rosendale |
Tim Sheehy |
Corey Stapleton |
Ryan Zinke |
Other/Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OnMessage Inc. (R) | February 18–21, 2023 | 600 (LV)[c] | ± 4.0% | 2% | 36% | 2% | 6% | 26% | 28% |
General election[edit]
Predictions[edit]
Polling[edit]
Hypothetical polling
- Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Greg Gianforte (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Political Company (R) | January 30 – February 1, 2023 | 534 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
- Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Matt Rosendale (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OnMessage Inc. (R) | February 18–21, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 5% | 7% |
Political Company (R) | January 30 – February 1, 2023 | 534 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 40% | – | 15% |
- Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Ryan Zinke (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Political Company (R) | January 30 – February 1, 2023 | 534 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
- ^ a b Has not declared their candidacy
- ^ a b c d Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
References[edit]
- ^ Everett, Burgess. “GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin’s Dems-only deal”. Politico. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
- ^ “Senate passes bill creating top-two primary in Tester’s 2024 U.S. Senate race”.
- ^ “Republicans seek to change Montana primary to thwart Tester”.
- ^ Concepcion, Summer (February 22, 2023). “Sen. Jon Tester to seek re-election in 2024”. NBC News. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
- ^ Everett, Burgess (April 7, 2023). “Montana beef: Bad blood intensifies between Tester and Daines”. Politico. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
Manchin is backing Tester and has tried to stop senator-vs.-senator campaign appearances, even previously endorsing two moderate Republicans.
- ^ a b “End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Tester for Reelection”. March 30, 2023.
- ^ “AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats”. March 16, 2023.
- ^ Holt, Matt (February 2, 2023). “Montana machinations: How Republicans are preparing to take on Jon Tester”. National Journal. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
- ^ a b c Brown, Matthew (November 12, 2022). “Surging Montana GOP eyes big prize: US Senate seat in 2024”. The Intelligencer. Retrieved November 12, 2022.
- ^ Slacik, Sophia (November 23, 2022). “The 2024 Senate battle has begun and the electoral map does not favor Democrats”.
Rosendale has communicated interest in a rematch with Tester
- ^ a b c “Senate GOP close to landing top recruit in Montana”. March 9, 2023.
- ^ “This Montana Republican wouldn’t support McCarthy, but a major group may support him for Senate”.
- ^ “2024 Senate Race Ratings”. Amy Walter. January 24, 2023. Retrieved January 24, 2023.
- ^ “Senate Ratings”. Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ “2024 Senate”. Sabato’s Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
External links[edit]
- Official campaign websites
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