2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. announced his intention to run for a fourth term on April 10th, 2023.[1]

Background[edit]

A typical swing state, Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. However, the Democratic Party has seen success in the state in recent years. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, and a majority of its U.S. Representatives in its congressional delegation, while the last time Republicans won a Senate seat was in 2016.[2][3][4][5]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 15 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points and in 2018 by 13 percentage points.[6][7][8]

Casey announced his intention to run for a fourth term on April 10th, 2023.[9]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Publicly expressed interest[edit]

Potential[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Hypothetical polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error 		Kathy
Barnette 		Doug
Mastriano 		David
McCormick 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) March 9-10, 2023 616 (LV) – 11% 39% 21% 29%
– – 42% 28% 29%

Independents[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Filed paperwork[edit]

  • Reece Wright-McDonald, writer[18]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

  1. ^ Has not declared their candidacy
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References[edit]

  1. ^ https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/politics/bob-casey-pennsylvania-reelection/index.html
  2. ^ “Pennsylvania 2020 presidential election results”. www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  3. ^ “Pennsylvania Governor Midterm Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics”. CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  4. ^ Narea, Nicole (February 8, 2023). “Democrats in Pennsylvania just won the 2022 midterms. Again”. Vox. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  5. ^ “United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016”. Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  6. ^ A 501tax-exempt; Street, charitable organization 1100 13th; NW; Washington, Suite 800; Dc 20005857-0044. “Pennsylvania Senate 2006 Race”. OpenSecrets. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  7. ^ “Pennsylvania”. The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  8. ^ “Pennsylvania Senate Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis”. www.politico.com. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  9. ^ https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/politics/bob-casey-pennsylvania-reelection/index.html
  10. ^ Wright, David (April 10, 2023). “Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats’ Senate outlook for 2024”. CNN. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  11. ^ Caldwell, Leigh Ann (April 10, 2023). “Senate 2024 contests begin to take shape”. Washington Post. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  12. ^ “David McCormick allies hope to avoid a GOP Senate primary fight in Pa”. March 13, 2023.
  13. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (December 12, 2022). “Pennsylvania’s McCormick taking steps that hint at potential 2024 Senate campaign”. Fox News. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
  14. ^ a b Levy, Marc (December 8, 2022). “Trump blowback could carry less bite in 2024 for some in GOP”. Associated Press. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
  15. ^ Heller, Karen (November 10, 2022). “Where does Dr. Oz — and his reputation — go from here?”. Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
  16. ^ “Daines walks Trump tightrope as he tries to win back Senate for Republicans”. Washington Post. March 6, 2023.
  17. ^ Lippman, Daniel; Otterbein, Holly (March 15, 2023). “MAGA favorite Kathy Barnette says she won’t run again for Senate”. POLITICO. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
  18. ^ “FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1673338”. docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved December 26, 2022.
  19. ^ “2024 Senate Race ratings”. Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  20. ^ “Senate Ratings”. Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  21. ^ “2024 Senate”. Sabato’s Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites



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