2020 United States presidential election in Utah

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Election in Utah

The 2020 United States presidential election in Utah was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2]Utah voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party’s nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Utah has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations projected Utah as leaning towards Trump, or a safe red state. Throughout the campaign, Trump did not exceed 60% in a single poll conducted. Some polls even showed the president leading by single digits against Biden, likely indicating a closer than normal contest in this traditionally Republican stronghold. In past elections, Utah has often given the GOP nominee one of their largest victories in the nation, having awarded George W. Bush and Mitt Romney over 70% of the vote in 2004 and 2012, respectively. However, Trump only won Utah with 58.1% of the vote and a margin of 20.5%, which although an improvement on his 18.1% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, is still relatively narrow compared to past Republican nominees. He performed strongly in rural areas, as well as in some larger counties like Utah (Provo), Davis (Farmington), and Weber (Ogden). Trump improved over his 45.5% plurality win in 2016, due in part to the lack of a strong third party presence, as Evan McMullin, who endorsed Biden,[4][5] earned 21.5% of the vote that year. The election was far more of a two-party contest in 2020, with third parties receiving 4.2% of the vote, compared to 27% in 2016. Despite this, the Associated Press reported a less partisan and more cooperative cultural environment in Utah compared to other states during the election.[6]

With no major third-party challenges, Trump improved his vote share by 13% while Biden improved on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 results by 10.3 percentage points. Biden’s improvement garnered him the highest percentage by a Democratic presidential nominee in Utah since Lyndon Johnson won with 54.9% of the vote in 1964, as Biden overtook the vote shares of Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Barack Obama in 2008, and Jimmy Carter in 1976 (the only other Democratic nominees to surpass a third of the state’s vote since 1964). Biden’s greatest support came from Salt Lake County, the state’s most populous county, where he won 53.7%, the first outright majority for a Democratic nominee in the county since Johnson in 1964. Biden also won Summit County (Park City), which, along with Salt Lake, was one of two counties in the state Hillary Clinton had carried in 2016 (and the only one where she had won a majority); and he flipped Grand County (Moab), which had voted Democratic in 1992 and 2008.[7]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump’s strength in Utah came from Mormons. 53% of voters identified as Mormons, and Trump received 72% of their votes.[8] Trump also won the suburban areas, which make up 57% of the state, with 54% of the vote.[9]

Utah is also one of the 7 states (along with Arkansas, Nevada, California, Illinois, Florida, and Hawaii) as well as the District of Columbia in which Trump’s margin increased from 2016.

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Primary elections[edit]

Republican primary[edit]

The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Utah politicians Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney both declined to run against Trump.

Democratic primary[edit]

The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[13][14]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Likely R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[18] Likely R November 3, 2020
Sabato’s Crystal Ball[19] Likely R November 3, 2020
Politico[20] Likely R November 3, 2020
RCP[21] Likely R November 3, 2020
Niskanen[22] Safe R November 3, 2020
CNN[23] Safe R November 3, 2020
The Economist[24] Safe R November 3, 2020
CBS News[25] Likely R November 3, 2020
270towin[26] Likely R November 3, 2020
ABC News[27] Safe R November 3, 2020
NPR[28] Likely R November 3, 2020
NBC News[29] Likely R November 3, 2020
538[30] Safe R November 3, 2020

Polling[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

Aggregate polls[edit]

Polls[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g]		 Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,586 (LV) ± 3.5% 55%[h] 43% – – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 2,783 (LV) – 55% 43% – – – –
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune Oct 15–24, 2020 660 (LV) ± 3.8% 51% 44% – – 5%[i] –
RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics Oct 12–17, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 38% 3% 0% 1% 7%
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune Sep 26 – Oct 4, 2020 1,214 (LV) ± 2.8% 50% 40% – – 10% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,192 (LV) – 56% 42% – – – 2%
RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics Sep 7–12, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 53% 35% 5% 0% 1% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 893 (LV) – 57% 41% – – – 2%
RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News Jul 27 – Aug 1, 2020 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 50% 31% 3% 1% 4% 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,037 (LV) – 58% 40% – – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 412 (LV) – 57% 41% – – – 1%
Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2 May 9–15, 2020 1,099 (LV) ± 3% 44% 41% – – 9%[j] 5%
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News Apr 15–21, 2020 964 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 32% – – 8% 9%
Y2 Analytics Mar 21–30, 2020 1,266 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 41% – – 7% 5%
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News Feb 24 – Mar 1, 2020 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 50% 33% – – 8%[k] 8%
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News Jan 15–22, 2020 1,017 (RV) ± 3.1% 49% 31% – – 13%[l] 7%
Y2 Analytics Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019 149 (RV) – 36% 35% – – 14%[m] 5%

Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g]		 Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News Jan 15–22, 2020 1,017 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 32% 11%[n] 13%

with Donald Trump and Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g]		 Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Cory
Booker (D) 		Other Undecided
Y2 Analytics Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019 153 (RV) – 31% 43% 23%[o] 3%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g]		 Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Other Undecided
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News Jan 15–22, 2020 1,017 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 25% 13%[l] 14%
Y2 Analytics Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019 144 (RV) – 48% 28% 15%[p] 9%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g]		 Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Other Undecided
Y2 Analytics Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019 144 (RV) – 48% 33% 15%[q] 5%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g]		 Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Other Undecided
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News Jan 15–22, 2020 1,017 (RV) ± 3.1% 49% 23% 14%[r] 14%

with Donald Trump and Beto O’Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g]		 Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O’Rourke (D) 		Other Undecided
Y2 Analytics Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019 140 (RV) – 41% 27% 25%[s] 7%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Results[edit]

Precinct results:

Results by county[edit]

County[31] Donald Trump
Republican 		Joe Biden
Democratic 		Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Kanye West
Independent 		Don Blankenship
Constitution 		Howie Hawkins
Green 		Other Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Beaver 2,695 86.94% 357 11.52% 23 0.74% 7 0.23% 4 0.13% 6 0.19% 8 0.26% 2,338 75.42% 3,100
Box Elder 21,548 79.73% 4,473 16.55% 614 2.27% 112 0.41% 134 0.50% 55 0.20% 91 0.34% 17,075 63.18% 27,027
Cache 38,032 66.06% 16,650 28.92% 1,796 3.12% 230 0.40% 351 0.61% 217 0.38% 295 0.51% 21,382 37.14% 57,571
Carbon 6,693 71.44% 2,392 25.53% 151 1.61% 44 0.47% 22 0.23% 18 0.19% 49 0.52% 4,301 45.91% 9,369
Daggett 496 80.13% 111 17.93% 7 1.13% 2 0.32% 2 0.32% 0 0.00% 1 0.16% 385 62.20% 619
Davis 104,135 61.29% 57,411 33.79% 5,004 2.95% 1,012 0.60% 827 0.49% 597 0.35% 909 0.54% 46,724 27.50% 169,895
Duchesne 7,513 88.14% 843 9.89% 107 1.26% 18 0.21% 21 0.25% 9 0.11% 13 0.15% 6,670 78.25% 8,524
Emery 4,207 86.47% 572 11.76% 47 0.97% 15 0.31% 4 0.08% 8 0.16% 12 0.25% 3,635 74.72% 4,865
Garfield 2,158 78.99% 514 18.81% 37 1.35% 2 0.07% 3 0.11% 11 0.40% 7 0.26% 1,644 60.18% 2,732
Grand 2,248 43.36% 2,806 54.12% 62 1.20% 19 0.37% 5 0.10% 23 0.44% 22 0.42% -558 -10.76% 5,185
Iron 18,989 76.29% 4,892 19.65% 666 2.68% 94 0.38% 88 0.35% 78 0.31% 83 0.33% 14,097 56.64% 24,890
Juab 5,087 86.72% 645 11.00% 91 1.55% 13 0.22% 16 0.27% 5 0.09% 9 0.15% 4,442 75.72% 5,866
Kane 2,998 71.72% 1,083 25.91% 51 1.22% 15 0.36% 16 0.38% 8 0.19% 9 0.22% 1,915 45.81% 4,180
Millard 5,404 87.73% 624 10.13% 64 1.04% 16 0.26% 26 0.42% 5 0.08% 21 0.34% 4,780 77.60% 6,160
Morgan 5,181 79.56% 1,086 16.68% 160 2.46% 35 0.54% 21 0.32% 13 0.20% 16 0.25% 4,095 62.88% 6,512
Piute 773 88.75% 86 9.87% 7 0.80% 3 0.34% 1 0.11% 0 0.00% 1 0.11% 687 78.87% 871
Rich 1,157 84.89% 180 13.21% 14 1.03% 4 0.29% 3 0.22% 2 0.15% 3 0.22% 977 71.68% 1,363
Salt Lake 230,174 42.53% 289,906 53.57% 12,219 2.26% 2,590 0.48% 1,570 0.29% 2,203 0.41% 2,513 0.46% -59,732 -11.04% 541,175
San Juan 3,535 51.40% 3,113 45.26% 99 1.44% 45 0.65% 28 0.41% 17 0.25% 41 0.60% 422 6.14% 6,878
Sanpete 10,459 82.80% 1,794 14.20% 215 1.70% 39 0.31% 50 0.40% 19 0.15% 55 0.44% 8,665 68.60% 12,631
Sevier 9,052 87.35% 1,084 10.46% 133 1.28% 28 0.27% 31 0.30% 14 0.14% 21 0.20% 7,968 76.89% 10,363
Summit 10,252 39.30% 15,244 58.43% 367 1.41% 86 0.33% 25 0.10% 65 0.25% 49 0.19% -4,992 -19.14% 26,088
Tooele 21,014 66.67% 8,943 28.37% 958 3.04% 152 0.48% 181 0.57% 81 0.26% 189 0.60% 12,071 38.30% 31,518
Uintah 13,261 86.63% 1,663 10.86% 226 1.48% 37 0.24% 56 0.37% 29 0.19% 35 0.23% 11,598 75.77% 15,307
Utah 192,812 67.78% 76,033 26.73% 10,377 3.65% 1,680 0.59% 1,375 0.48% 853 0.30% 1,350 0.47% 116,779 41.05% 284,480
Wasatch 10,795 61.40% 6,187 35.19% 352 2.00% 86 0.49% 53 0.30% 45 0.26% 63 0.36% 4,608 26.21% 17,581
Washington 67,294 74.38% 20,530 22.69% 1,742 1.93% 298 0.33% 220 0.24% 187 0.21% 205 0.23% 46,764 51.69% 90,476
Wayne 1,229 75.82% 365 22.52% 9 0.56% 7 0.43% 3 0.19% 3 0.19% 5 0.31% 864 53.30% 1,621
Weber 65,949 59.18% 40,695 36.52% 2,849 2.56% 524 0.47% 415 0.37% 482 0.43% 528 0.47% 25,254 22.66% 111,442
Totals 865,140 58.13% 560,282 37.65% 38,447 2.58% 7,213 0.48% 5,551 0.37% 5,053 0.34% 6,603 0.44% 304,858 20.48% 1,488,289

County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[edit]

By congressional district[edit]

Trump won all four congressional districts.[32]

See also[edit]

  1. ^ 13 delegates, if Warren’s and Bloomberg’s statewide delegates would have been calculated.
  2. ^ 6 delegates, if Warren’s and Bloomberg’s statewide delegates would have been calculated.
  3. ^ 5 delegates, if Warren’s and Bloomberg’s statewide delegates would have been calculated.
  4. ^ 5 delegates, if Warren’s and Bloomberg’s statewide delegates would have been calculated.
  5. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew shortly before the primary after all-mail voting had started.
  6. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  9. ^ “Someone else” with 5%
  10. ^ “Third party candidate” with 8%; “other” with 1%
  11. ^ Other with 5%; would not vote with 3%
  12. ^ a b Other with 9%; would not vote with 4%
  13. ^ a b “A third-party candidate” with 10%; other with 4%
  14. ^ Other with 8%; would not vote with 3%
  15. ^ “A third-party candidate” with 16%; other with 7%
  16. ^ “A third-party candidate” with 12%; other with 3%
  17. ^ “A third-party candidate” with 13%; other with 2%
  18. ^ Other with 10%; would not vote with 4%
  19. ^ “A third-party candidate” with 20%; other with 5%
  20. ^ Other with 6%; would not vote with 3%
  21. ^ Other with 10%; would not vote with 3%
  22. ^ a b Other with 9%; would not vote with 3%
  23. ^ “A third-party candidate” with 15%; other with 4%
  24. ^ “Third party candidate” with 8%; “other” with 4%
  25. ^ “Third party candidate” with 12%; “other” with 4%
  26. ^ “Third party candidate” with 12%; “other” with 6%
  27. ^ a b c Listed as “Time to give someone new a chance to serve” (as opposed to “should be re-elected”)

References[edit]

  1. ^ “Voter turnout in United States elections”. Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). “US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?”. The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ “Distribution of Electoral Votes”. National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ “Former presidential candidate Evan McMullin endorses Rep. Ben McAdams in Utah race”. www.ksl.com. Retrieved December 29, 2020.
  5. ^ “‘Utah Politics’ podcast: Evan McMullin on foreign election interference and QAnon”. The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved December 29, 2020.
  6. ^ Sullivan, Tim (December 17, 2020). “AP ROAD TRIP: Amid American rancor, a dash of Utah Nice”. Associated Press. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
  7. ^ “The Political Graveyard: Grand County, Utah”. politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
  8. ^ “Utah Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted”. The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  9. ^ “Utah Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted”. The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  10. ^ “2020 Presidential Candidates – Utah Voter Information”. voteinfo.utah.gov.
  11. ^ “Utah Republican Delegation 2020”. The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  12. ^ “2020 Presidential Primary Election State Canvass”. Utah.gov. Lieutenant Governor of the State of Utah. March 24, 2020. Archived from the original on April 8, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  13. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). “Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass”. The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  14. ^ Herndon, Astead W.; Burns, Alexander (December 31, 2018). “Elizabeth Warren Announces Iowa Trip as She Starts Running for President in 2020”. The New York Times. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  15. ^ “2020 Presidential Primary Election State Canvass”. Utah.gov. Lieutenant Governor of the State of Utah. March 24, 2020. Archived from the original on April 8, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  16. ^ “Associated Press Election Services – Delegate Tracker”. Associated Press. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
  17. ^ “2020 POTUS Race ratings” (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  18. ^ “POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections”. insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  19. ^ “Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball » 2020 President”. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ^ “2020 Election Forecast”. Politico. November 19, 2019.
  21. ^ “Battle for White House”. RCP. April 19, 2019.
  22. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  23. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). “Road to 270: CNN’s debut Electoral College map for 2020”. CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  24. ^ “Forecasting the US elections”. The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  25. ^ “2020 Election Battleground Tracker”. CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  26. ^ “2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map”. 270 to Win.
  27. ^ “ABC News Race Ratings”. CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  28. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). “2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes”. NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  29. ^ “Biden dominates the electoral map, but here’s how the race could tighten”. NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  30. ^ “2020 Election Forecast”. FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  31. ^ a b Lieutenant Governor of the State of Utah (November 23, 2020). “2020 General Election Canvass” (PDF). Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  32. ^ Nir, David (November 19, 2020). “Daily Kos Elections’ presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012”. Daily Kos. Retrieved December 10, 2020.

External links[edit]


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