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2020\u5e7410\u670829\u65e5\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u3001\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30d6\u30b5\u30fc\u30c6\u30a3\u30a8\u30a4\u30c8\u306f\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u30fb\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u306b\u300cC-\u300d\u8a55\u4fa1\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b[11]\u3002\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e8\u30fc\u30af\u30fb\u30bf\u30a4\u30e0\u30ba\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u3001\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u8aac\u660e\u306f\u307b\u307c\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\uff1a\u300c\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u306e\u30a6\u30a7\u30d6\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u306f\u540c\u793e\u306e\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9\u306e\u6f20\u7136\u3068\u3057\u305f\u5e83\u544a\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8aad\u3081\u308b\u3082\u306e\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u540c\u793e\u306e\u8abf\u67fb\u304c\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u671b\u307e\u3057\u3055\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u306b\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u306b\u7acb\u3061\u5411\u304b\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306a\u8aac\u660e\u3092\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u300d[1]\u3002 Table of Contents \u7cbe\u5ea6\u3068\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b9[\u7de8\u96c6]2016\u5e74\u7c73\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6]2018\u5e74\u4e2d\u9593\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6]2020\u5e74\u30b5\u30a6\u30b9\u30ab\u30ed\u30e9\u30a4\u30ca\u5dde\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4e88\u5099\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6]2020\u5e74\u7c73\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6]\u95a2\u9023\u9805\u76ee[\u7de8\u96c6]\u5916\u90e8\u30ea\u30f3\u30af[\u7de8\u96c6] \u7cbe\u5ea6\u3068\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b9[\u7de8\u96c6] 2016\u5e74\u7c73\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6] 2016\u5e74\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u5408\u8846\u56fd\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u6319\u4e2d\u3001\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u30fb\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u306f\u3001\u30df\u30b7\u30ac\u30f3\u5dde\u3067\u30c9\u30ca\u30eb\u30c9\u30fb\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u306e\u52dd\u5229\u3092\u793a\u3057\u305f\u552f\u4e00\u306e\u4e16\u8ad6\u8abf\u67fb\u4f1a\u793e\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u540c\u5dde\u3067\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u306f\u52dd\u5229\u3057\u305f\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u30ea\u30a2\u30eb\u30af\u30ea\u30a2\u30dd\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u30af\u30b9\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u3001\u30da\u30f3\u30b7\u30eb\u30d9\u30cb\u30a2\u5dde\u3067\u306e\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u306e\u52dd\u5229\u3092\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u305f\u300c\u307b\u307c\u552f\u4e00\u300d\u306e\u5b58\u5728\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f[12]\u3002\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e8\u30fc\u30af\u30fb\u30bf\u30a4\u30e0\u30ba\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u3001\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u306f\u307e\u305f\u300c\u5404\u5019\u88dc\u8005\u304c\u5f97\u305f\u9078\u6319\u4eba\u7968\u306e\u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u6570\u3092\u6b63\u3057\u304f\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u305f\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046[1]\u3002 2018\u5e74\u4e2d\u9593\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6] 2018\u5e74\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u5408\u8846\u56fd\u4e2d\u9593\u9078\u6319\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30ea\u30a2\u30eb\u30af\u30ea\u30a2\u30dd\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u30af\u30b9\u306f\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u30fb\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u3092\u300c\u3053\u306e\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30eb\u3067\u6700\u3082\u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u4e16\u8ad6\u8abf\u67fb\u4f1a\u793e\u300d\u3068\u8a55\u3057\u305f[13]\u3002 \u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u30fb\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u306e2018\u5e74\u30b5\u30a6\u30b9\u30ab\u30ed\u30e9\u30a4\u30ca\u5dde\u77e5\u4e8b\u9078\u306e\u4e16\u8ad6\u8abf\u67fb\u306f\u3001\u9078\u6319\u306e\u6700\u7d42\u7d50\u679c\u30680.1%\u4ee5\u5185\u306b\u76f8\u95a2\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f[14]\u3002 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of Contents  \u7cbe\u5ea6\u3068\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b9[\u7de8\u96c6]2016\u5e74\u7c73\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6]2018\u5e74\u4e2d\u9593\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6]2020\u5e74\u30b5\u30a6\u30b9\u30ab\u30ed\u30e9\u30a4\u30ca\u5dde\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4e88\u5099\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6]2020\u5e74\u7c73\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6]\u95a2\u9023\u9805\u76ee[\u7de8\u96c6]\u5916\u90e8\u30ea\u30f3\u30af[\u7de8\u96c6]\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3068\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b9[\u7de8\u96c6]2016\u5e74\u7c73\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6]2016\u5e74\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u5408\u8846\u56fd\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u6319\u4e2d\u3001\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u30fb\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u306f\u3001\u30df\u30b7\u30ac\u30f3\u5dde\u3067\u30c9\u30ca\u30eb\u30c9\u30fb\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u306e\u52dd\u5229\u3092\u793a\u3057\u305f\u552f\u4e00\u306e\u4e16\u8ad6\u8abf\u67fb\u4f1a\u793e\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u540c\u5dde\u3067\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u306f\u52dd\u5229\u3057\u305f\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u30ea\u30a2\u30eb\u30af\u30ea\u30a2\u30dd\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u30af\u30b9\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u3001\u30da\u30f3\u30b7\u30eb\u30d9\u30cb\u30a2\u5dde\u3067\u306e\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u306e\u52dd\u5229\u3092\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u305f\u300c\u307b\u307c\u552f\u4e00\u300d\u306e\u5b58\u5728\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f[12]\u3002\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e8\u30fc\u30af\u30fb\u30bf\u30a4\u30e0\u30ba\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u3001\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u306f\u307e\u305f\u300c\u5404\u5019\u88dc\u8005\u304c\u5f97\u305f\u9078\u6319\u4eba\u7968\u306e\u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u6570\u3092\u6b63\u3057\u304f\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u305f\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046[1]\u30022018\u5e74\u4e2d\u9593\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6]2018\u5e74\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u5408\u8846\u56fd\u4e2d\u9593\u9078\u6319\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30ea\u30a2\u30eb\u30af\u30ea\u30a2\u30dd\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u30af\u30b9\u306f\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u30fb\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u3092\u300c\u3053\u306e\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30eb\u3067\u6700\u3082\u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u4e16\u8ad6\u8abf\u67fb\u4f1a\u793e\u300d\u3068\u8a55\u3057\u305f[13]\u3002\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u30fb\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u306e2018\u5e74\u30b5\u30a6\u30b9\u30ab\u30ed\u30e9\u30a4\u30ca\u5dde\u77e5\u4e8b\u9078\u306e\u4e16\u8ad6\u8abf\u67fb\u306f\u3001\u9078\u6319\u306e\u6700\u7d42\u7d50\u679c\u30680.1%\u4ee5\u5185\u306b\u76f8\u95a2\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f[14]\u3002\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u306f2018\u5e74\u306e\u30b8\u30e7\u30fc\u30b8\u30a2\u5dde\u77e5\u4e8b\u9078\u306e\u4e16\u8ad6\u8abf\u67fb\u3067\u7570\u5e38\u5024\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3001\u540c\u793e\u306e\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306a\u4e16\u8ad6\u8abf\u67fb\u3067\u306f\u30d6\u30e9\u30a4\u30a2\u30f3\u30fb\u30b1\u30f3\u30d7\u304c12\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30c9\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306f2\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u5dee\u3067\u9078\u6319\u306b\u52dd\u5229\u3057\u3001\u4ed6\u793e\u306e\u4e16\u8ad6\u8abf\u67fb\u3067\u306f1\uff5e2\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u306e\u5dee\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f[15]\u30022020\u5e74\u30b5\u30a6\u30b9\u30ab\u30ed\u30e9\u30a4\u30ca\u5dde\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4e88\u5099\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6]2020\u5e74\u30b5\u30a6\u30b9\u30ab\u30ed\u30e9\u30a4\u30ca\u5dde\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4e88\u5099\u9078\u6319\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u30fb\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u306e\u4e16\u8ad6\u8abf\u67fb\u306f\u30b8\u30e7\u30fc\u30fb\u30d0\u30a4\u30c7\u30f3\u306e\u52dd\u5229\u3092\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u3001\u52dd\u5229\u306e\u6709\u610f\u5dee\u3092\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u8a08\u6e2c\u3057\u305f[14]\u30022020\u5e74\u7c73\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u6319[\u7de8\u96c6]2020\u5e74\u306e\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u5408\u8846\u56fd\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u524d\u306b\u3001\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u30fb\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u306f\u3001\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u304c\u9078\u6319\u306b\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u52dd\u5229\u3059\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u8ff0\u3079\u3001\u30a2\u30ea\u30be\u30ca\u5dde\u3001\u30d5\u30ed\u30ea\u30c0\u5dde\u3001\u30b8\u30e7\u30fc\u30b8\u30a2\u5dde\u3001\u30df\u30b7\u30ac\u30f3\u5dde\u3001\u30cd\u30d0\u30c0\u5dde\u3001\u30ce\u30fc\u30b9\u30ab\u30ed\u30e9\u30a4\u30ca\u5dde\u3001\u30da\u30f3\u30b7\u30eb\u30d9\u30cb\u30a2\u5dde\u3067\uff08\u30d0\u30a4\u30c7\u30f3\u306b\uff092\uff5e3\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u5dee\u3092\u3064\u3051\u3066\u52dd\u5229\u3059\u308b\u3068\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u305f[16][17]\u3002\u95a2\u9023\u9805\u76ee[\u7de8\u96c6]^ a b c d Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (2020\u5e7411\u67082\u65e5). \u201cThe One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win\u201d (\u82f1\u8a9e). The New York Times. ISSN\u00a00362-4331. https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/article\/trump-polls-trafalgar-group.html 2020\u5e7411\u67083\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u00a0^ \u201c\u300c\u96a0\u308c\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u300d\u3067\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u304c\u518d\u9078\uff1f\u904e\u53bb\u306b\u6fc0\u6226\u533a\u3092\u7684\u4e2d\u3055\u305b\u305f\u30ed\u30d0\u30fc\u30c8\u30fb\u30b1\u30a4\u30d2\u30ea\u30fc\u6c0f\u304c\u4e88\u60f3\u201d (\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e). \u30cf\u30d5\u30dd\u30b9\u30c8 (2020\u5e7410\u670827\u65e5). 2020\u5e7410\u670829\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002^ \u65e5\u672c\u653e\u9001\u5354\u4f1a. \u201c\u201c\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u52a3\u52e2\u201d\uff1f \u4e16\u8ad6\u8abf\u67fb\u306f\u4fe1\u983c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff5c\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u63192020\uff5cNHK NEWS WEB\u201d. www3.nhk.or.jp. 2020\u5e7410\u670829\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002^ Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (2020\u5e7411\u67084\u65e5). \u201cThe One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win\u201d. The New York Times. https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/article\/trafalgar-group-poll.html 2020\u5e7411\u67085\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u00a0^ Kaut, Kendall. \u201cTrafalgar’s Missed a Lot in 2018 and 2020\u201d. 2020\u5e7412\u67084\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002^ Easley, Jonathan (2020\u5e746\u670827\u65e5). \u201cWhere things stand in 13 battleground states\u201d. The Hill. https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/504790-where-things-stand-in-13-battleground-states 2020\u5e748\u670815\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u00a0^ Enderle, Rob (2016\u5e7411\u670811\u65e5). \u201cHow Trump defeated Clinton using analytics\u201d. CIO Magazine. https:\/\/www.cio.com\/article\/3138972\/how-trump-defeated-clinton-using-analytics.html 2020\u5e748\u670815\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u00a0^ a b Russonello, Giovanni (2019\u5e7411\u670825\u65e5). \u201cFour Problems With 2016 Trump Polling That Could Play Out Again in 2020\u201d. New York Times. https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/11\/23\/us\/politics\/2020-trump-presidential-polls.html 2020\u5e748\u670815\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u00a0^ Kilgore, Ed (2020\u5e747\u670829\u65e5). \u201cThere\u2019s Still No Evidence Trump Voters Are Particularly \u2018Shy\u2019\u201d. New York Magazine. https:\/\/nymag.com\/intelligencer\/2020\/07\/theres-still-no-evidence-trump-voters-are-particularly-shy.html 2020\u5e748\u670815\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u00a0^ Stanton, Zach (2020\u5e7411\u67084\u65e5). \u201c\u2018People Are Going To Be Shocked\u2019: Return of the \u2018Shy\u2019 Trump Voter?\u201d. Politico. https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/magazine\/2020\/10\/29\/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619 2020\u5e7411\u67084\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u00a0^ \u201cFiveThirtyEight\u2019s Pollster Ratings\u201d. fivethirtyeight.com.   FiveThirtyEight. 2020\u5e748\u670815\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002^ Bevan, Tom (2020\u5e746\u670822\u65e5). \u201cPollster Who Got It Right in 2016: Michigan a Dead Heat\u201d. RealClearPolitics. https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/articles\/2020\/06\/22\/pollster_who_got_it_right_in_2016_michigan_a_dead_heat__143512.html 2020\u5e748\u670815\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u00a0^ Ruddick, John (2020\u5e7410\u670819\u65e5). \u201cWhy history is on Trump’s side, not Joe Biden’s\u201d. Australian Financial Review. https:\/\/www.afr.com\/world\/north-america\/why-history-is-on-trump-s-side-not-joe-biden-s-20201019-p566bw 2020\u5e7411\u67085\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u00a0^ a b \u201cOne Last Swing Through Robert Cahaly\u2019s Electoral Map\u201d. FITSNews. (2020\u5e7411\u67083\u65e5). https:\/\/www.fitsnews.com\/2020\/11\/03\/one-last-swing-through-robert-cahalys-electoral-map\/ 2020\u5e7411\u67085\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u00a0^ Geragahty, Jim (2020\u5e749\u67088\u65e5). \u201cThe Polls Aren\u2019t Always Wrong\u201d. National Review. https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/the-morning-jolt\/the-polls-arent-always-wrong\/ 2020\u5e7411\u67085\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u00a0^ Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (2020\u5e7411\u67084\u65e5). \u201cThe One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win\u201d. The New York Times. https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/article\/trafalgar-group-poll.html 2020\u5e7411\u67085\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u00a0^ Kaut, Kendall. \u201cTrafalgar’s Missed a Lot in 2018 and 2020\u201d. 2020\u5e7412\u67084\u65e5\u95b2\u89a7\u3002\u5916\u90e8\u30ea\u30f3\u30af[\u7de8\u96c6]"},{"@context":"http:\/\/schema.org\/","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https:\/\/wiki.edu.vn\/jp\/wiki6\/#breadcrumbitem","name":"Enzyklop\u00e4die"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https:\/\/wiki.edu.vn\/jp\/wiki6\/archives\/3771#breadcrumbitem","name":"\u30c8\u30e9\u30d5\u30a1\u30eb\u30ac\u30fc\u30fb\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7 – Wikipedia"}}]}]