Blue wall (British politics) – Wikipedia

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Set of British constituencies which have historically been strongholds of the Conservative Party

The blue wall is a term used in British politics to describe a set of parliamentary constituencies in southern England which have traditionally voted for the Conservative Party, but generally opposed Brexit and are seen as being potentially vulnerable to gains either by the Liberal Democrats or the Labour Party.[1] This shift was noticeable in the UK general elections of 2017 (when Labour gained Canterbury, which had had a Conservative MP since 1918) and 2019 (when the Liberal Democrats gained St Albans).

Overview[edit]

The “Blue wall” is the inverse of the “red wall”, a term coined in August 2019 to describe a set of constituencies in northern England, the Midlands and Wales that had long been held by Labour, and many of which were later gained by the Conservatives at the 2019 election.[2][3]YouGov defines the blue wall as seats which are “currently held by the Conservatives; voted to Remain in 2016; and have a higher-than-average concentration of degree holders in the population (25%+).”[4][5]

The term saw significant use following the 2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election, in which the Liberal Democrats overturned a large Conservative majority; Ed Davey, the Leader of the Liberal Democrats, knocked down a literal blue wall of bricks with an orange mallet to symbolise his party’s victory.[6] He said afterwards that he believed “the blue wall in the south can be taken by the Liberal Democrats in large numbers of constituencies.”[7] In July 2021, Davey started the process of selecting parliamentary candidates in blue wall seats[8] and the party revealed its first candidate, for Guildford, the following month.[9]

Starting in December 2021, with the 2021 North Shropshire by-election, the usage of this term has evolved to mean any seat which the Conservative Party has traditionally held.[10] The evolved usage has been demonstrated by Davey describing the North Shropshire seat as being another seat falling from the blue wall.[11]

In February 2022, think tank Onward posited that the north of England—as part of the red wall—would be “the principal battleground in the next general election” with there being “no evidence of a southern ‘blue wall’ ready to fall”. The study found that only 20% of battleground seats at the next election would be in southern England, and in such seats the Conservatives could “gain ground”. Onward’s director Will Tanner said, “While the south is steadily becoming less Conservative over time, there is no blue wall waiting to fall across the Home Counties in two years’ time”. However, Onward did admit that certain seats “in London and the south-east are drifting away from the Tories and could fall in two or three elections’ time”, with data analyst James Blagden observing that “[t]he heart of the Tory party has been shifting northwards for the last 30 years” yet any potential of their “traditional southern heartlands slowly drifting away” existed in the long-term, with their “greatest short-term concern” being “backsliding in the red wall, losing their iconic 2019 gains, and putting their majority at serious risk.”[12]

Blue wall constituencies[edit]

The following constituencies, among others, are considered part of the blue wall.

Criticism of the term[edit]

Just like “red wall”, the concept of a blue wall has been criticised as a generalisation. James Blagden, Chief Data Analyst at the think tank Onward, said there was no evidence of a blue wall in Southern England that mirrored Labour’s red wall.[13]

If a Blue Wall existed anywhere, it was London in the 1990s. The Conservatives polled better in London than they did nationally at every election between 1979 and 1992. But there was a ‘correction waiting to happen’. Using regression analysis, we show that the Conservatives over-performed demographic predictions in 49 out of their 60 London seats in 1987. Only 11 of these remained after Tony Blair swept to victory ten years later. The pendulum swung hard against the Conservatives and has never returned. So much so that the Conservatives have never held a smaller share of London seats, while being in Government, than they do now.

Opinion polling[edit]

Graph of opinion polls conducted

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con Lib Dem Lab Green Other Lead
26 Feb 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,150 32% 18% 41% 5% 5% 9%
11–12 Feb 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 34% 17% 41% 4% 5% 7%
28–29 Jan 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,200 32% 19% 42% 4% 4% 10%
11 Jan 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,200 30% 21% 40% 3% 7% 10%
21–22 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton Peston 1,200 30% 21% 41% 4% 4% 11%
13–14 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,250 32% 23% 38% 2% 4% 6%
29 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,250 33% 16% 44% 2% 5% 11%
7–8 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 28% 24% 41% 4% 4% 13%
31 Aug – 21 Sep 2021 Opinium Greenpeace 1,000 43% 14% 34% 5% 4% 9%
6–18 Sep 2021 YouGov N/A 841 45% 15% 26% 11% 4% 19%
20–28 Jul 2021 YouGov N/A 1,141 44% 18% 24% 9% 6% 20%
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 52% 24% 20% 2% 2% 28%

See also[edit]

  1. ^ North Shropshire was known as Oswestry from 1885 to 1983

References[edit]

  1. ^ Curtice, John (2021). “Is there a Conservative ‘blue wall’?”. IPPR Progressive Review. 28 (2): 194–203. doi:10.1111/newe.12253. ISSN 2573-2331.
  2. ^ Buckley, Mike (21 June 2021). “Red Wall or Blue Wall?”. Byline Times. Archived from the original on 4 August 2021. Retrieved 4 August 2021.
  3. ^ Jeffrey, Luke (21 May 2021). “Crumbling in the Blue Wall: Why the south could be a headache for the Tories”. Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 14 November 2021.
  4. ^ English, Patrick (30 July 2021). “The first ever poll of the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ finds the Conservatives struggling in their traditional heartland seats”. YouGov. Archived from the original on 30 July 2021. Retrieved 4 August 2021.
  5. ^ Wheeler, Richard (31 July 2021). “Conservatives at risk of losing seats in ‘blue wall’ heartlands, YouGov poll suggests”. The Independent. Archived from the original on 5 August 2021. Retrieved 5 August 2021.
  6. ^ Savage, Michael (19 June 2021). “The blue wall: what next for the Tories after a shock byelection defeat?”. The Observer. Archived from the original on 20 June 2021. Retrieved 21 June 2021.
  7. ^ Stone, Jon (20 June 2021). “Ed Davey says Lib Dems could win ‘dozens’ of blue wall seats from Tories after by-election win”. The Independent. Archived from the original on 9 July 2021. Retrieved 9 July 2021.
  8. ^ Gye, Hugo (15 July 2021). “Liberal Democrats start picking ‘blue wall’ candidates for next election in bid to keep up pressure on Tories”. i. Archived from the original on 16 July 2021. Retrieved 16 July 2021.
  9. ^ Rogers, Alexandra (25 August 2021). “Lib Dems Eye Up Another ‘Blue Wall’ Win With Selection Of First General Election Candidate”. HuffPost UK. Retrieved 4 October 2021.
  10. ^ Drury, Colin (11 December 2021). “The blue wall falling? Safe Tory seat up for grabs amid growing voter disquiet in North Shropshire by-election”. The Independent. Retrieved 17 December 2021.
  11. ^ Gilholy, Georgia (17 December 2021). “Lib Dems claim voters have ‘moved on from Brexit’ after North Shropshire win”. Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 17 December 2021.
  12. ^ Badshah, Nadeem (27 February 2022). “Next general election will be decided in north of England, says thinktank”. The Guardian. Retrieved 18 March 2022.
  13. ^ Blagden, James (28 February 2022). “Onward – A Tory “Blue Wall” Does Not Exist”. ukonward.com. Retrieved 30 June 2022.